No Longer Red or Blue: The Future is Green

When Rubert Murdoch got dinged for Fox News’ culpability in the Dominion defamation lawsuit for his network knowingly spreading lies about the voting machine’s role in alleged voter fraud after the 2020 election, the Australian media mogul confessed in testimony that, for him, his motivation behind such behavior was “not red, or blue. It was green.”   

Yes, in this case, Rupert was talking about the money.  But today, green isn’t just about the money.  It can also be about the environment and renewable energy.  To paraphrase Gordon Gecko.  “Green is good”.

In the face of our escalating climate crises, economic disruptions, and a rapidly evolving energy landscape, the traditional framework of Red versus Blue politics appears increasingly obsolete.  The future in politics is Green.  Not the old school, tree hugger, save the whales with Birkenstock activism, which historically gets dismissed out-of-hand for sounding too flakey or “woke”.   I’m talking about governance driven by science, evidence-based policies, and financial pragmatism focused on sustainability and ROI.  What many are now calling the “Energy Economy”.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 provides a compelling and pivotal case study for why this shift to Green is inevitable. It demonstrates how cleantech investments transcend partisan boundaries, yielding tangible benefits for communities, businesses, and the environment, regardless of political affiliations.   Plus, as we may in fact see in the coming weeks and months, dismantling or reversing any of the policies, practices and spending – championed by the previous administration – isn’t going to happen in any material way.   We’ve passed the tipping point.  The horse has left the barn; and recent calls for “energy leadership” by the new administration only support this reality.

The Inflation Reduction Act: A Game-Changer

The IRA allocated nearly $369 billion for clean energy investments, marking the largest federal investment in climate action in U.S. history. But the law was not just about climate, it was also about reshaping the economy by accelerating the transition to renewables, creating jobs, and enhancing energy independence.  The funds have already begun reshaping America’s energy landscape, fostering innovation and infrastructure development in areas long dominated by fossil fuels.    It has also served to encourage funding from the private sector as well.  Together these investments rose to $147 billion in the first half of 2024. (Source: Clean Investment Monitor/Rhodium Group and MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research)

Key outcomes of the IRA also include:

  1. Expanding the Renewable Energy Mix: The energy grid is undergoing a profound transformation, with renewables like wind and solar making up an increasing share of the U.S. energy portfolio. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), renewables provided 24% of U.S. electricity in 2023, up from 20% in 2021, with projections indicating continued growth.
  2. Shrinking Fossil Fuels: Fossil fuel’s share in the energy mix is steadily declining. Coal consumption for power generation dropped by 30% between 2021 and 2023, driven by cheaper and cleaner alternatives, supported by IRA incentives.
  3. Economic Stimulus in “Red” States: Many of the IRA’s most significant projects are located in Republican strongholds.

In fact, 60% of clean energy projects announced post-IRA are in Republican-controlled districts.   IRA tax credits have incentivized utility companies to build renewable energy infrastructure in rural areas, creating jobs and lowering energy costs for consumers. They have also helped to revitalize struggling local economies, providing stable employment in regions that once relied on declining industries like coal mining.   This pattern underscores a crucial point: cleantech is not a partisan issue but an economic imperative.

Science and Financial Logic Outpace Ideology

As the cost of renewable energy technologies continues to plummet, the financial case for clean energy continues to grow. Solar and wind are now the cheapest forms of electricity in many parts of the world, including the U.S.   Battery storage and grid modernization technologies are rapidly advancing, further solidifying the economic rationale for clean energy investments.

Fossil Fuels: A Declining Industry

The U.S. energy sector is witnessing a steady decline in fossil fuel dominance, driven by market economics and federal policy.

  1. Coal: now accounts for less than 20% of electricity generation, down from over 50% in the early 2000s. In 2023 alone, coal consumption fell by an additional 5%, with closures of aging plants accelerating.  Analysts expect coal’s share to drop below 10% by 2030 as utilities transition to renewables.
  2. Oil and Gas: accounted for 38% of electricity generation in 2023, but this figure is projected to decline to 33% by 2030 as renewables and storage technologies become more competitive.  Oil, largely used in transportation, faces mounting pressure from the surge in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, spurred by IRA incentives and falling EV prices.

Renewables: A Growing Industry

Renewables, on the other hand, are on a rapid growth trajectory, fueled by technological advancements and IRA-driven incentives. Key data points include:

  1. Solar and Wind: Together, solar and wind provided 16% of U.S. electricity in 2023, up from 6% a decade ago. Solar installations alone grew by 40% in 2023, while wind capacity expanded by 25%, thanks to federal tax credits and private sector investments.
  2. Battery Storage: Installations had doubled year-over-year, reaching 11 gigawatts of operational capacity in 2023. Storage is critical for enabling higher penetration of renewables, and the sector is projected to grow 10 X by 2035.
  3. Renewable Costs: The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar has dropped by over 90% since 2010, while wind costs have fallen by 70%. In contrast, the LCOE for coal and gas has remained relatively stable or increased due to fuel price volatility and regulatory pressures.  
  4. Projections: By 2030, renewables are expected to provide 45% of U.S. electricity, with fossil fuels shrinking to just 50%, down from 60% in 2023. The balance will be made up by nuclear and emerging technologies

(Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly Reports 2024)

Economic and Employment Impact

The financial and employment benefits of renewables also highlight their superiority over fossil fuels when it comes to employment forecasts.  Job creation in the clean energy sectors, including wind, solar, and battery manufacturing, added over 100,000 jobs in 2023 alone, while fossil fuel industries saw job losses due to automation and plant closures.

States with high renewable penetration, such as Texas and California, report lower electricity costs compared to states reliant on fossil fuels. Wind energy alone has saved consumers billions in avoided fuel costs over the past decade.

The data is clear: renewables are not just environmentally superior; they are economically and financially more viable.  The market, driven by science and logic, is leaving ideology behind in favor of sustainability, jobs and profits.  A positive feedback loop between green (money) and (environmentally) green practices.

Embracing “Green” as a Unifying Force

In the last five years, the growth of EV’s, wind turbines, solar panels, heat pumps and batteries – in combination with increasing load demand from data centers and a.i. – is forcing America to upgrade its grid.  In fact, an adjusted 5-year forecast cited by Grid Strategies (Dec 24 Report) shows demand increasing by a factor of 5, from 23 GW to 128 GW between now and 2030.   Nothing political about that.  

Meanwhile, large and expensive, top-down, hardware additions to the grid, such as transformers and turbines, are suffering from supply chain problems, putting many deliveries eight to ten years out!    Renewables, on the other hand – also known as “distributed energy resources “(DERs) – are increasingly being interconnected at the local level, serving as virtual power plants (VPPs) or “microgrids”, generating and delivering dispatchable gigawatts of electricity to the grid, today.  

This modern, ground-up approach may in fact be what allows Google, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Tesla, Oracle, and every home, office, school, town, city and state in America to get the affordable power we’re all going to need over the next five years.   Electrons are apolitical.   Electrons don’t vote. 

Red versus Blue politics thrive on division, but Green politics offers a neutral, unifying framework. Clean energy investments create jobs, reduce energy costs, and enhance national security by decreasing dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets; benefits that should resonate across party lines.

As more Americans experience the tangible benefits of clean energy, lower utility bills, new job opportunities, and cleaner air in this new Energy Economy, the political narrative will continue to shift. The IRA’s success in Republican districts highlights the bipartisan appeal of cleantech policies, and despite the current barrge of discouraging headlines and declarations populating the mediasphere, the “greening” of America’s energy portfolio will only continue.

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